Last November we timed the top of Bitcoin within a week and we have been waiting for a new positive cycle to kick in late March and by mid-April. We are at that point.
We are at a cyclical point where we have to start accumulating longs. Computer models give a 64% chance for 37764 and that would be ideal and we need to break above 45000 to negate that pattern and confirm buying strength. We do not have the technical signal but the cycles have now shifted positively and we have not had this signal for a shift since we saw the Nov. high and it was time to take profits. We can wait for 38000 but we are at a key time window.
Our next major cycle high is into the middle of May and we still feel like the market is in transition. .
To deal with the volatility, you can consider GBTC as an ETF. Still, GBTC would have a better entry and patterns there suggest we should be patient for better levels to buy.
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Because of some larger 80 year and 248-year cycles going back to the Revolutionary War, something bigger could happen into 2023-2024. US cycles all suggest a huge major event in April 2024 and we do not know if this event will coincide with a low in stocks or to the acceleration of it. It is a change of empire cycle so we doubt the US will stay on top of the world in the same way that Britain lost that status after World War 2. China is waiting in the wings.
If you have not figured it out yet, the government likes to be totally in control and force us to be dependent on them. The state of the world lockdowns and plans for the Great Reset to combat climate change and trillions of dollars in world debt is a warped way of looking at the world, but it is happening. You can see the plans with Biden signing a bill for the creation of electronic money and when the system fails, you had better be a good boy or girl if you want your allowance on your electronic card.
We sense that the government tyranny cycles will not be over until April 2024 based on our cycle work and similar cycles to World War 2 which lasted about 5 years and there is plenty of time for governments to do their controlling mischief.
The world mess with trillions of dollars of debt and Covid the bills due will not go away. We keep inflating world debt into the trillions and there is not going to be a soft landing there. We continue to work on the timing for such an event. You will need to work on strategies to keep your assets and your money safe and owning unmortgaged property is one idea.
The nature of the 248-year cycle which peaks into the spring of 2024 and 2025 is such that the US will be very different from its current status in the world and clearly, China has larger plans than we would like to believe and anyone who thinks such thinking is racist should do their homework. Maybe it will take until 2030-32 before the center of the world shifts from Washington and New York to Beijing but you can see their aspirations and their long-term chess match at work.
The world has been sitting on a powder-keg of 45 trillion dollars of debt as we have never seen before. The Central Bankers have no solution and the Globalists want to crash the system to take away all their greedy mistakes for decades. Yes, we need Bitcoin to come to the rescue but governments do not like competition and will want to create their own Cryptos and helicopter money to control everyone. We always worry that Bitcoin legislation could easily wipe it out as they did with gold in the ’30s. The question is always timing these mega-events and we cannot live in fear like chicken-little and many people have since the mortgage crisis. At the moment we think 2023 is more like a crash year than 2022. This is an election year, folks.
Larger Elliott wave patterns usually keep us out of trouble and the larger pattern would still allow the S & P to reach up to 5045 and possibly that could be 2023 and then the crash of centuries would probably take the S & P back to 1000. We do not see the economic background for this to happen.
We have to decide when this is no longer viable and that might be if 3600 on the S & P cash comes out. Given this is an election year, the powers that be will try to save everything but world leaders across the world seem more incompetent than ever except for Putin and XI and they have big plans to shift the center of the world to China.
Wild weather cycles are not going to go away and massive flooding cycles are strong in March/April/May. For now, the US West is in a drought and it is projected to go through June.
This will not help food production and the CRB and inflation cycles are projecting 350 which would match the 2011 CRB high. War and violence cycles are particularly messy in March and April but even more so in July and August and again in November. The Russia/Ukraine mess and Chinese aspiration for Taiwan and even the US continue to have us worried. It does not take a genius to predict that Biden will not finish out his term as President and that means Harris is coming later in the year. The Democrats are plodding to get rid of both if they have any hope of staying in power given their abysmal approval ratings and disastrous policies. Yes, folks, blaming it on the Putin campaign is a typical distraction. Who believes that Putin is to blame for rising oil prices that started well before the war started?
Inflation cycles continue into May 2024 but may not go away thereafter quickly as everyone is hoping. We never like to use the word crash which implies a fall of more than 20% –and rather quickly but the long-term outlook for 2023 is not promising until the end of 2023.
Crude oil cycles are temporarily peaking probably at 132 this spring but higher numbers will come.
