(6/19)
This past week and the next week of June 20-21st have been on our radar for a major inflection point for a while. We see the stock market at least doing a 3-week rebound but it may be too little too late. It probably is because crude will give it up giving hopes that inflation will wane. Gold and silver are starting to look higher into mid-July and late August. Interest rates and bonds are very oversold and due for a bounce. Bitcoin may also be ready for a dead cat bounce but its cycle lows are not complete until September. so maybe we get 13800 or lower before it’s done. We are skeptical that cryptos will save the world and the fall has been too dramatic to think that a recovery high into March 2023 will be a new high.
The crude oil market is about to break down and a fall to 89 may develop and the July high may be a B wave bounce back to 106 but something bigger could hit. Oil stocks were signaling a temporary demise for crude. The CRB is also close to topping and doubts that 350 will come out some patterns suggest that the CRB would fall back to 250 and then go to 400 next year when crude could get to 235. That means we may get temporary relief from inflation later in the year but we have not completely timed it. Luckily, folks, markets do not go straight down but this mess is far from over and there is no long-term accumulation for stocks for a while.
The recessionary leaders copper and lumber are telling us the larger economy is in trouble with copper projecting 3.64 and maybe even 3.00 before it’s done. Lumber has also fallen off a cliff and may go back to 2.50 before it’s done as it’s too expensive to build homes as interest rates go higher.
Very soon we are going to have to look at alternative investments as the bell weathers are not going to make it. There is even a class of US Treasury bonds now that you can buy for 10,000 that will give you 9% and is adjusted to inflation. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the wheels are starting to come off the train and we had better get educated as the easy money plays are gone. We are working on revving up our ETF timer to support you with alternatives
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