Author: admin

Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

The stock market has confirmed a temporary high and is starting a correction at least into Dec. 16th. When is the next entry for shorts? How it reacts off of the Dec. 16th low will be important to see if it will continue lower into early January. Silver has confirmed a high and also gold and they should break the whole month. Crude oil confirmed a breakdown to much lower numbers now. Stay on top of our projections and ways to trade these exciting markets with the Fortucast Timers.

-Barry

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

When Does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

When does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

A close look at the Powell press conference does not reveal that it is that dovish and it was widely felt that the Dec. rate hike would only be 50 bps. already so why the extreme reaction? Most of the Fed governors are still hawkish and the market was just trigger-happy to buy going into the first of the month. We have a cluster of turning points for stocks and metals into Dec. 5-6th and usually, the market is lower a week before the FOMC announcement on Dec. 14th.

Gold projects 1848 for pattern completion and the dollar is close to key support at 104.05 and 103.72. The S & P probably will not get through 4154 on futures. The bigger question, is how much does the market go down in December, when does it stop and what does next year look like?

Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers. One month’s trial is 97.00.

-Barry

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

For daily timers. please visit: https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans

Stocks have had a nice bounce but we doubt 4100 on cash will come out by Friday or Sunday night and cycles turn negative into the end of the month and actually into the end of the year and into early January. Not sure the FOMC will cooperate with enough dovish language to make people happy. The good news is that we do see a January/Feb. rally coming and we have worked on our 2023 forecast. For now, if you need to take profits on stocks that you do not like, look at Friday/Monday. We will wait to buy and invest until later. Gold also gave a sell signal on Wednesday and crude oil does not look great next week. Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers. One month’s trial is 97.00.
-Barry

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Crude oil took out the key 8040 regions today confirming a move to 71.00 and possibly 65.00. Cycle lows are due at the earliest into the end of the month and we have to look at Dec. more closely to see if it can extend in time. Seasonals are often lower into mid-December depending on how Old Man Winter behaves and how early. Oil stocks are very overbought and due for a correction with the stock market into December. We still like this complex into next year and may finally get the break we have needed.

-Barry

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Will Metals Continue their Ride?

Will Metals Continue their Ride?

Longer-term metals cycles are friendly into March 2023 and we are still waiting for gold to close over 1820 and silver to take out 2240 to confirm higher numbers.

Cycles suggest that we will get a confirmed bottom and then a secondary low into December which will be a better entry and if the FED is not as generous as many are hoping for, gold and silver may retrace recent gains.

-Barry

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

We have had so many false signals on metals that we want to ignore the recent spurt this week which is mainly because China is selling dollars to prop up the Yuan and that could take the dollar index to 107.40 over the next few days. Gold futures need to take out 1715 to issue a buy signal but they could hit 1720-30 and then turn down still as we do have the market lower next week. Silver at best might get to 2056 and still turn down.

We are in an x-factor world now with currencies becoming rather volatile and on edge with interest rates and metals are finally getting noticed. After so many false signals we are waiting for gold to close above 1730 and then buy a pullback into early December.

Our long-term work still points to 1600 or 1500 into early December. We do see metals coming to life during the 1st quarter of 2023.

Stay on top of these rapidly changing markets with our Fortucast updates twice a day. Get a 97.00 one-month trial of Fortucast Financials or the Fortucast ETF timer.

Stay on top of our trades and timing for this complex with Fortucast.

-Barry

Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

The stock market recovered from the abyss on Friday and the S & P futures need to take out 3763 and then 3820 for it to be meaningful. We do not like cycles next week and at best the market may hold up on Sunday. There are too many x-factor out there with the Yen at 32 year lows, the chaos in British politics and their pension program in jeopardy. Russia and Ukraine look particularly intense going into Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for the S & P to go to 3550 on cash quickly is much stronger than a breakout. What do we see for the rest of the year?

WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for a potential step down to 50bps in December.

Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and the subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…

We got our fundamental hockey puck to save on Friday but can it last?

Stay on top of our trades and timing for this complex with Fortucast.

-Barry

Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Energy Prices Continue to Falter

Despite OPEC reductions and an energy crisis in Europe, natural gas and crude oil are starting to issue breakdown signals.

Crude oil would have to take out 9000 again to turn bullish and is projecting 75.85 short-term and lower to 72.00 and cycle lows are not due until mid-November. Natural gas under 6.00 is projected at 5.19-5.22 and do we dare think 4.25? Cycles for natural gas are lower until at least Oct 25th.

Eventually, the reality of the energy crisis, cold winters, demand for heating oil, and many other factors will take these markets wildly high this winter but for now, they are in trouble and will pull UNG, the ETF for Natural Gas stocks, and XLE for oil stocks lower.

Stay on top of our trades and timing for this complex with Fortucast.

-Barry

Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

The stock market got to a key level at 3500 and reached an exhaustion point and the bad news from CPI was expected. At some point, you get a vacuum pivot as everyone is too short and computer buying can suddenly create a huge move. The S & P is closing up over 2.66 % which does not mean much in the context of the fall of 850 S & P points since the August high. One day is not enough to right what is wrong in the world with bond markets ready to explode in Japan and the UK and Russia increasing its attack on Ukraine. Still today’s rally was welcome and there should be a bit more early next week.The good news is that we should get another leg up 200 S & P points from a pullback early next week but we think that is all that we can count on. Stay in touch with our twice-daily thoughts by subscribing to the Fortucast ETF timer or the Fortucast Financial Timer.

This bear is a long way from being over.

-Barry

Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.

Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

The employment data today was a bit hawkish and the stock market is retracing the huge gains we saw early in the week. The rule is that the market usually retraces in 3 waves so there should be another leg up next week in stocks. We have been expecting 3660 on S & P futures to hold today and so far it is happening despite looking terrible this morning, we do see another push-up next week.
Gold and silver also retraced today as they do not like higher rates but they also need additional legs higher next week. How far will these markets go higher next week? What comes thereafter?

-Barry

Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.

These markets change very quickly, so stay in touch with our forecasts with a one-month trial subscription.

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.