Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

We have had so many false signals on metals that we want to ignore the recent spurt this week which is mainly because China is selling dollars to prop up the Yuan and that could take the dollar index to 107.40 over the next few days.  Gold futures need to take out 1715 to issue a buy signal but they could hit 1720-30 and then turn down still as we do have the market lower next week.  Silver at best might get to 2056 and still turn down.

We are in an x-factor world now with currencies becoming rather volatile and on edge with interest rates and metals are finally getting noticed. After so many false signals we are waiting for gold to close above 1730 and then buy a pullback into early December.

Our long-term work still points to 1600 or 1500 into early December.   We do see metals coming to life during the 1st quarter of 2023.

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-Barry

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Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

The stock market recovered from the abyss on Friday and the S & P futures need to take out 3763 and then 3820 for it to be meaningful.  We do not like cycles next week and at best the market may hold up on Sunday.  There are too many x-factor out there with the Yen at 32 year lows, the chaos in British politics and their pension program in jeopardy.  Russia and Ukraine look particularly intense going into Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for the S & P to go to 3550 on cash quickly is much stronger than a breakout.  What do we see for the rest of the year?

WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for a potential step down to 50bps in December.

Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and the subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…

We got our fundamental hockey puck to save on Friday but can it last?

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-Barry

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Energy Prices Continue to Falter

Energy Prices Continue to Falter

Despite OPEC reductions and an energy crisis in Europe, natural gas and crude oil are starting to issue breakdown signals.

Crude oil would have to take out 9000 again to turn bullish and is projecting 75.85 short-term and lower to 72.00 and cycle lows are not due until mid-November.  Natural gas under 6.00 is projected at 5.19-5.22 and do we dare think 4.25?  Cycles for natural gas are lower until at least Oct 25th.

Eventually, the reality of the energy crisis, cold winters, demand for heating oil,  and many other factors will take these markets wildly high this winter but for now, they are in trouble and will pull UNG, the ETF for Natural Gas stocks, and XLE for oil stocks lower.

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-Barry

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What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

The stock market got to a key level at 3500 and reached an exhaustion point and the bad news from CPI was expected.  At some point, you get a vacuum pivot as everyone is too short and computer buying can suddenly create a huge move.  The S & P is closing up over 2.66 % which does not mean much in the context of the fall of 850 S & P points since the August high.    One day is not enough to right what is wrong in the world with bond markets ready to explode in Japan and the UK and Russia increasing its attack on Ukraine.    Still today’s rally was welcome and there should be a bit more early next week.The good news is that we should get another leg up 200 S & P points from a pullback early next week but we think that is all that we can count on.  Stay in touch with our twice-daily thoughts by subscribing to the Fortucast ETF timer or the Fortucast Financial Timer.

This bear is a long way from being over.

-Barry

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Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

The employment data today was a bit hawkish and the stock market is retracing the huge gains we saw early in the week.  The rule is that the market usually retraces in 3 waves so there should be another leg up next week in stocks.   We have been expecting 3660 on S & P futures to hold today and so far it is happening despite looking terrible this morning, we do see another push-up next week.
Gold and silver also retraced today as they do not like higher rates but they also need additional legs higher next week.   How far will these markets go higher next week?  What comes thereafter?

-Barry

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METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?

METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?


Gold is getting interesting.  With one more day up, we could see 1747-1748.  The most bullish pattern would allow 1778 before a pullback.  Given the interest in metals—finally, you have to worry about the dark clouds in the financials system which almost crashed in Europe and Japan with their bond problems the US could be next, and investors are waking up to that.  With gold up into as late as Oct. 19th, the most bullish pattern would allow 2150.  We will not bring it back until 1900 comes out.

Gold could finish to the upside to 1820 or 1880 into mid-October.  Above 1900 we would bring back the bullish pattern to 2150.  Our cycle work still supports a Dec. cycle low. Hence we are not ready to discount  1500 into late Dec. when cycle lows are due on the yearly chart.
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Silver is on the verge of extending to 2150 or 2198 if it takes out 2115. That would allow only a pullback to 2025 into Friday.   Given that there is more time, it has a higher possibility of happening.   Pullbacks into Friday would go to 2025 or max. 2005 depending on where the market stops on Wednesday.  The overall next target is 2285-2305  and those are targets into the Oct. 9-19th positive window.  The most bullish pattern projects this month before we get a pullback.  Silver has continued to find ways to disappoint so let’s be cautious.

CRUDE OIL UPDATE:

Last weekend’s post was off as we did not see the impact of OPEC last Friday.  Crude should reach up to 88.40 minimum or max. 91.50. Need to take out 92.00 to negate the bearish pattern to 72.00 into next week which is there in the cycles.

Our cycles suggest selling the fact coming on Wednesday so the bear should resume.

-Barry

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Crude oil in Trouble

Crude oil in Trouble

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Crude failed to issue a breakout signal above 83.70 on Nov crude futures with the hurricane and patterns and cycles suggest a fall next to 7220 and cycles look lower for a few weeks.  The X-Factor is an Oct 5th meeting by OPEC.  Reuters notes that It is “likely” that the group will agree on a cut, a source at OPEC told Reuters.  At the previous meeting, OPEC+ reversed the 100,000-barrels-per-day increase for September and returned the October quota to the levels from August.

Oil stocks have been in trouble with the XLE and the XOP and we worry about a Nov. cycle low for them also.  At best the XLE might recover to 75.72 if it goes up with a rebound in the stock market due the first few weeks of October.  We worry about seeing 60.92 next. How low will crude fall into the late fall?

-Barry

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Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd

Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd

 

The dollar has been soaring and has a cycle high into Friday and the thought is that the World Central Banks will intervene to halt the dollar and prevent the British Pound from taking out 1.00.  We have eventual projections to 9100 on the Pound so intervention may only have a temporary impact.  The S & P probably needs two more lows to complete and today one is close and probably would go to the max. 3595 with a recovery to 3725.   A new low under 3595 should happen by Friday or Sunday, creating a temporary bottom for stocks. What kind of recovery can we expect in this crazy world?

T-notes are also close to 109.10-109.18 which should hold and gold looks like it would go to 1590.  Both of those are not done but will pause.    Meanwhile, crude oil under 8200 is headed for 7220 and is far from done, and does not seem to care about Hurricane Ian.

-Barry

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Breakdowns and the Deflation Cycle

Breakdowns and the Deflation Cycle

 

 

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While inflation is happening, it takes time to work its way out of the system.  The CRB index of 15 commodities peaked in June and has been going lower and projects 215-225 before it is done. In the process, it will pull many commodities lower into the late fall and help inflation.

There is a deflation cycle that runs from now into about Oct. 16th. It may be offset in a few places at times.  Many commodities have hit key breakdown areas today as the dollar soars.    Our projection to 113.00 on the dollar does not look so absurd now with T-notes hitting the 112.16 level and then some with a low of 111.25 this morning and maybe not being done until 111.05 comes in.   Gold took out 1653-57 and is suggesting that 1625 will come in next week and eventually 1500  into late fall and silver is close to a breakdown under 1877 projecting 1853 and 1825.
Copper already took out 3.36 and our projection to 296-300 may not seem absurd anymore.   Crude got below  80.35 at today’s low but will the Hurricane come to save it?  If the Hurricane misses the gulf, then crude could break to 72.25 based on cycles.   Natural gas also took out the breakdown area of 7.00 and should hold 6.47 by Monday and bounce next week but in trouble with the technical breakdown.  Stock indices are also not done with their swoon   Stay on top of all these markets with Fortucast timers.

-Barry

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