METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?
METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?
Gold is getting interesting. With one more day up, we could see 1747-1748. The most bullish pattern would allow 1778 before a pullback. Given the interest in metals—finally, you have to worry about the dark clouds in the financials system which almost crashed in Europe and Japan with their bond problems the US could be next, and investors are waking up to that. With gold up into as late as Oct. 19th, the most bullish pattern would allow 2150. We will not bring it back until 1900 comes out.
Gold could finish to the upside to 1820 or 1880 into mid-October. Above 1900 we would bring back the bullish pattern to 2150. Our cycle work still supports a Dec. cycle low. Hence we are not ready to discount 1500 into late Dec. when cycle lows are due on the yearly chart.
.
Silver is on the verge of extending to 2150 or 2198 if it takes out 2115. That would allow only a pullback to 2025 into Friday. Given that there is more time, it has a higher possibility of happening. Pullbacks into Friday would go to 2025 or max. 2005 depending on where the market stops on Wednesday. The overall next target is 2285-2305 and those are targets into the Oct. 9-19th positive window. The most bullish pattern projects this month before we get a pullback. Silver has continued to find ways to disappoint so let’s be cautious.
CRUDE OIL UPDATE:
Last weekend’s post was off as we did not see the impact of OPEC last Friday. Crude should reach up to 88.40 minimum or max. 91.50. Need to take out 92.00 to negate the bearish pattern to 72.00 into next week which is there in the cycles.
Our cycles suggest selling the fact coming on Wednesday so the bear should resume.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Crude oil in Trouble
Crude oil in Trouble
We Share this and other Market pointers on our blog:
Click here to see this post: https://commoditytimers.com/?p=4411&preview=true
Crude failed to issue a breakout signal above 83.70 on Nov crude futures with the hurricane and patterns and cycles suggest a fall next to 7220 and cycles look lower for a few weeks. The X-Factor is an Oct 5th meeting by OPEC. Reuters notes that It is “likely” that the group will agree on a cut, a source at OPEC told Reuters. At the previous meeting, OPEC+ reversed the 100,000-barrels-per-day increase for September and returned the October quota to the levels from August.
Oil stocks have been in trouble with the XLE and the XOP and we worry about a Nov. cycle low for them also. At best the XLE might recover to 75.72 if it goes up with a rebound in the stock market due the first few weeks of October. We worry about seeing 60.92 next. How low will crude fall into the late fall?
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd
Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd
The dollar has been soaring and has a cycle high into Friday and the thought is that the World Central Banks will intervene to halt the dollar and prevent the British Pound from taking out 1.00. We have eventual projections to 9100 on the Pound so intervention may only have a temporary impact. The S & P probably needs two more lows to complete and today one is close and probably would go to the max. 3595 with a recovery to 3725. A new low under 3595 should happen by Friday or Sunday, creating a temporary bottom for stocks. What kind of recovery can we expect in this crazy world?
T-notes are also close to 109.10-109.18 which should hold and gold looks like it would go to 1590. Both of those are not done but will pause. Meanwhile, crude oil under 8200 is headed for 7220 and is far from done, and does not seem to care about Hurricane Ian.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Breakdowns and the Deflation Cycle
Breakdowns and the Deflation Cycle
We Share this and other Market pointers on our blog:
Click here to see this post: https://commoditytimers.com/?p=4399&preview=true
While inflation is happening, it takes time to work its way out of the system. The CRB index of 15 commodities peaked in June and has been going lower and projects 215-225 before it is done. In the process, it will pull many commodities lower into the late fall and help inflation.
There is a deflation cycle that runs from now into about Oct. 16th. It may be offset in a few places at times. Many commodities have hit key breakdown areas today as the dollar soars. Our projection to 113.00 on the dollar does not look so absurd now with T-notes hitting the 112.16 level and then some with a low of 111.25 this morning and maybe not being done until 111.05 comes in. Gold took out 1653-57 and is suggesting that 1625 will come in next week and eventually 1500 into late fall and silver is close to a breakdown under 1877 projecting 1853 and 1825.
Copper already took out 3.36 and our projection to 296-300 may not seem absurd anymore. Crude got below 80.35 at today’s low but will the Hurricane come to save it? If the Hurricane misses the gulf, then crude could break to 72.25 based on cycles. Natural gas also took out the breakdown area of 7.00 and should hold 6.47 by Monday and bounce next week but in trouble with the technical breakdown. Stock indices are also not done with their swoon Stay on top of all these markets with Fortucast timers.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month for 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
World on the Edge and the Interest Rates
World on the Edge and the Interest Rates
As expected, the FED raised rates by 75 bps and projected 4.4% on the dot plot before they are done into 2023. We had been looking for the Dec. T-note futures contract to hit 112.16 and it got within 5 ticks from there today in a key time window. Markets do not go straight down so a recovery on Dec. T-notes to 114.16 or 115.20 is likely and if we are wrong 111.02 will hold.
The ETF for lower rates is TLT and it hit its long-term target of 105 but at the worst, it might get to 103.10. A bounce there to 113.61 or max 119.01 is in order but we do not see the trend for higher rates done although many see the FED capitulating and worrying about recession or if Europe goes to War with Russia, money will flee into US treasuries. We took profits today on TBT for higher rates.
There is a reason to be in a small long Note position for at least2-3 weeks in case something bigger happens but it’s hard for us to see the end of higher rates. These market change daily.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Surprise Drop for Energy Coming
Surprise Drop for Energy Coming
Crude oil went to the edge of a technical breakdown today at 81.75 on the Oct futures contract. When we look at cycles into the end of the month, they look lower and that suggests a break to 77.50 first and then 71.50.
Oil stocks as measured by the XLE oil stock index are also ready to break harder and we are wondering if 58.50 will come in next as the stock market is due to fall after the FOMC meeting.
Natural gas also issued a sell signal getting to 7.40 but it is recovering into the close but the damage is done and the next stop will be 7.02 and we wonder if lower numbers can come with cycle lows into Sept. 26th. That will pull UNG down.
It seems that the Biden administration will get the job done in getting gasoline prices down but the market is starting to fear recession and that is not a good long-term thing.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Stocks at the Breakdown Point
Stocks at the Breakdown Point
Click here to see this post on our website:https://commoditytimers.com/uncategorized/stocks-at-the-breakdown-point/
Stock indices violated key technical levels on Thursday/Friday confirming deeper breaks. The S & P futures below 3900 is projecting at least 3730 if not 3600. NQ futures are starting to project at least 11340. The earliest cycle low would be shortly after the FOMC but it could extend. Is there any chance for a traditional seasonal rally in October? Can the bulls ever come back?
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
Stocks Back in Panic Mode
Stocks Back in Panic Mode
The PPI today at 8.3% was higher than last month and NQ is down 4.3% and the S & P is down 3.2% by 11 am Central time. Usually a week before FOMC, which is Wednesday, the 21st, the stock market stops rallying and with CPI, it appears to have started a day earlier. Oversold conditions may create a dead cat bounce into Wednesday but we are concerned that something bigger is happening again and we have cycle lows until at least Sept. 23rd.
World situation cycles are also a bit on edge. Russian/Ukraine tensions are increasing and we are moving toward Midterms and we worry about X-factor events disrupting a potential change in power. Europe is also on edge between energy, weather and World War 3. Our long-term forecast for a sharp fall in the Euro next year is easy to make but a 1 month recovery is possible after FOMC. We are watching key turns within a few days of FOMC for key turns for many markets. Dec. T-notes could get to 112.16 and the dollar might still do a divergent high and gold could get pulled to 1653 as it failed to break out above 1750 this week when silver did.
Stay on top of these fast-moving markets with Fortucast Financial Timer or ETF Timers. Get a 1 month trial for 97.00.
Every day is a new puzzle piece so enjoy our twice-daily reports with intraday updates as needed.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.
MARKETS ON THE EDGE
MARKETS ON THE EDGE
Click here to see this post on our website:
https://commoditytimers.com/etf-timer/a-bounce-for-stocks/
Today and this weekend we have a key cyclical change for about a week and it is starting to show itself.
Gold flirted with a breakout at 1740 today but needs to get through 1748 to issue a more solid buy signal for 1822-1828 into next week’s high.
Silver also flirted and just failed under key resistance. Both of those markets look lower on Monday so we will be patient.
Crude broke above the key 85.50 area to issue a bounce and buy signal for next week and we have higher prices into the 16th. Still, we do not think it will change the weekly chart downtrend for 60.00 into the fall. Natural gas is holding key support at 7.75 and should be higher next week and into the 20th so we may be out of the woods if we can get through the close.
The dollar issued a sell signal but it would be stronger under 108.00 and it may congest a great deal and the pattern is iffy short-term. The long-term pattern is there for 113 and 117 and 121 into next year but if FOMC on the 21st does only a 50 bps hike and signals they are not ravenous, the dollar may lose momentum. We still have more work to complete here.
Bitcoin is up strongly today but until 25000 comes out it may still go down more. Our NQ projection for next week is to 13000 and that may hold it up but we do see lower prices for NQ into the fall at 11300 into late October.
-Barry
Stay on top of our latest thinking with a Fortucast subscription. One month trial of Financials or the ETF timer for 97.00.
Stay on top of our thoughts with Fortucast timers.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Try it for one month 97$ Click here!
Click here to view on our website
Click here to see our blog and other great products.