Last month, a few days before CPI, the market started down and then accelerated. The stock market has fallen enough this morning to at least signal that the S & P will go to 3700 if not 3665 and if we get a friendly surprise on Wednesday, it may recover on Thursday. We are not hopeful with cycles. The April 21-28th cycle is repeating and the market fell 9% during that time and that starts on Wednesday and goes into the 23rd. We do expect the market to take out the late June low. Stay on top of our strategies with Fortucast.
Barry
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
We have seen the break in the crude complex coming with the CRB topping and projecting 215-225 and the XLE having topped early reflecting profit-taking in oil stocks. With crude under 100.00, we can finally confirm projections to 93.33 and 89.58 next to get five waves down. The final projection for crude may be to 84.00 and cycle lows dominate into at least early August and we are looking further out. This will of course help gasoline.
All markets need a break and fears of a recession are killing crude now. We still have higher prices for a while so enjoy this break while you can.
Barry
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Cycles and patterns on gold and silver are key places in price and time. Silver is seasonally higher in July and hit the key 1930 region. At the worst, it should rally to 2100 this week and do another low to 1850 but it may be totally done and start a move to 2450 and eventually higher. We should note that the London Metals Exchange will be stopping the sales and delivery of silver futures starting in July and they cited diminishing trading volume but you know the World Economic Forum has their mitts in the works as they want to move to electronic money and silver is a major threat. Time to buy those bags of silver quarters before 1964 while they are cheap.
Gold also hit a key level and at the worst would go to 1772 and once it goes over 1835 should start a move up to 2060 this summer. GDX, or the gold miner’s index also hit a very key level and had a hook bottom.
It is important to buy oversold conditions when they look the worst. We have those opportunities. Watch metals ETFs with GLD and SLV in our ETF timer and gold and silver futures in our Financial Timer. Only 97.00 for a one-month trial.
-Barry
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Many are worried about new lows coming right away for the stock market. We think that the S & P is retracing the 300 gains from the May 17th low and will hold 3740 on S & P can and then have a strong rally of another 300 S & P points the week of July 4-11th. This may be the last point to exit stocks as the week of July 11-15 looks down hard and we worry about difficult cycles into early August sending the stock market deeply lower into September and possibly for many months.
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Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Gold and silver continue to give us false hopes and then fall flat on their backs. It’s a bit like the cartoon strip Peanuts where Lucy holds the football for Charlie Brown and then pulls it out from under him so he falls on his back. Gold is close to breaking again and if 1809 comes out we could see 1790 and 1772 before it sets up a buy finally. That may happen into Monday the 26th. Silver is holding up better but much under 2080 and silver could fall to 2000 and 1930 to deflate the metals bulls. We do like metals cycles this summer so we will want to be buying GLD and SLV and futures so keep an eye on it. Stay on top of our latest thinking with Fortucast.
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
This past week and the next week of June 20-21st have been on our radar for a major inflection point for a while. We see the stock market at least doing a 3-week rebound but it may be too little too late. It probably is because crude will give it up giving hopes that inflation will wane. Gold and silver are starting to look higher into mid-July and late August. Interest rates and bonds are very oversold and due for a bounce. Bitcoin may also be ready for a dead cat bounce but its cycle lows are not complete until September. so maybe we get 13800 or lower before it’s done. We are skeptical that cryptos will save the world and the fall has been too dramatic to think that a recovery high into March 2023 will be a new high.
The crude oil market is about to break down and a fall to 89 may develop and the July high may be a B wave bounce back to 106 but something bigger could hit. Oil stocks were signaling a temporary demise for crude. The CRB is also close to topping and doubts that 350 will come out some patterns suggest that the CRB would fall back to 250 and then go to 400 next year when crude could get to 235. That means we may get temporary relief from inflation later in the year but we have not completely timed it. Luckily, folks, markets do not go straight down but this mess is far from over and there is no long-term accumulation for stocks for a while.
The recessionary leaders copper and lumber are telling us the larger economy is in trouble with copper projecting 3.64 and maybe even 3.00 before it’s done. Lumber has also fallen off a cliff and may go back to 2.50 before it’s done as it’s too expensive to build homes as interest rates go higher.
Very soon we are going to have to look at alternative investments as the bell weathers are not going to make it. There is even a class of US Treasury bonds now that you can buy for 10,000 that will give you 9% and is adjusted to inflation. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the wheels are starting to come off the train and we had better get educated as the easy money plays are gone. We are working on revving up our ETF timer to support you with alternatives
Financial Market Timer
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
So the stock market was down over 3% this morning and the bad news is that cycles are weak until at least next Sunday.
NQ 100 futures will easily get to 11047 but could fall to 10400 and S & P futures are not far from our target of 3690 and if we have that much time will it fall more.
Bitcoin broke the key 25000 are and has been falling with NQ. Larger cycle lows for Bitcoin are not due until September and it probably will be down another week before it bounces. The summer does not look great either based on our analysis below.
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TENSE CYCLES FROM LATE JULY INTO MID-AUGUST
(6/9 ) We have seen these cycles produce race riots in the past as in the 2014 St. Louis riots given larger forces on the globe at work something deeper can happen in terms of more violent rebellion forces that erupt to do socio-economic breakdowns, and world debt and inflation and food scarcity. Depending on the country this could lead to rebellion against corporate and governmental corruption and incompetence, the completion of the small-business closures that started with Covid, growing crime waves, and food and fuel and water shortages. You can see all of these lurkings in the background and they may explode into a crisis by late July.
There may also be issues with storms and earthquakes, concerns about military and nuclear threats, cyber-attacks, failures of utility systems, or even the Internet. The stock market and many markets are not going to react well to all of this and it will bring the incompetence of the government to the forefront of people’s awareness but they may decide to do something about it.
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
The ECB meeting on Thursday and the stock market patterns would allow a breakout for the S & P to 4235 or 4280 over the next few days as long as 4075 on the futures holds. All the markets have been coiling waiting for D-Day and so let’s see if it releases all the pent-up energy. If we get a 2-3 day surge, the market may give it all up next week with the US hiking rates 50 bps on the 15th. Never a dull moment.
-Barry
For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
Yesterday’s 900-point DOW move got all given back and more as the rally was just a 4th wave. The depth of today’s fall tells us that cash S & P will at east go to 3930 and pull futures to 3920. If we are to get a 2nd wave to bounce off of Thursday’s massacre, it is most likely on Friday with Sunday and Monday looking more difficult than even today.
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For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.
This week is a rare pullback week for grains and we should be buying Sept. call options or ETF for grains like CORN, SOYB, or WEAT into Friday.
Larger patterns still point to 1771-80 short-term on July beans and 1875 into later in the spring. Corn should hit 854 if not 884 before we worry about a pullback and July wheat is projecting 1225 and 1397 after this week’s pullback. Wild weather cycles continue this year, Ukraine and Russia produce 29% of the world’s wheat and cold and wet springs in the Midwest may force more corn into soybeans as the last safe planting date is May 10th. Fertilizer prices are through the roof and some places cost 5 times what they cost last year, and this eats into profit and we need these high prices to keep things going.
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