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Gold is Swooning

With all the hype about gold and the great long-term fundamentals, the bankers who manipulate it with paper gold are still in control.
Gold had a technical breakdown last week and has a few floors to go to first at 1821 and then 1775 and then 1721 and that may take until July. Gold miners are also looking terrible and while gold was finally profitable a few weeks ago, if it falls again, the mines will not be profitable.
There are funds for short gold like GLL and there are techniques to handle short gold and selling out of the money calls. Gold’s day will arrive but for now, it is back in the pits. Stay on top of our strategies with Fortucast.

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Capitulation Day 1

NQ 100 is close to taking out the continuation chart low at 13000 and projects 12756. Some of the Mega-Cap earnings today or Wednesday will push it over the edge. We do see a recovery from Wednesday into Friday or Monday and it will seem that all is well until the Fed raises rates on May 3rd and the market will go for lower lows.Things are not as easy for the stock market as they once were as you will not just be able to buy and hold and tech stocks are just not what they used to be and you will have to pick things that will go up like grain funds like CORN and SOYB or get into funds like RYLD and QYLD that give you nice monthly dividends by selling covered calls. Energy funds are still falling and what happens if crude goes to 87.50 or 83.50 next month?
Barry

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For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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Stocks on the Ledge

We do not see a crash coming so you can relax about that. We may get to 3930-4000 on S & P cash before the market starts a rebound. The FED is telling us probably 50 BPS on May 3rd and then they are hinting at 75 bps hike by the June meeting and they are talking about 3.5% by March 2023. Many people have not been around for a bear market and we are just at the beginning stages. This market has been up 13 years and the FED is finally saying they will raise rates and not care about the stock market anymore as there are larger things for them to consider.

So when will this market bottom? How far will it recover? Stay on top of all of this with Fortucast Timers. Always exciting opportunities when the markets get wild.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month Click here!

Stock Market Turns the Corner

FOMC minutes are coming out at 1 pm and patterns on the stock market suggest a negative reaction for a secondary low but that should set up a buy for at least 4570 on S & P cash into early next week. The market often comes off or consolidates 1 week before FOMC which is on May 3 but Powell may confirm a 50 bps rate hike early but it is baked in the market already. Stay on top of these markets with our daily timer.

Markets in Transition

So a number of markets are showing major signs and signals. Bitcoin is close to issuing a technical buy signal and we had a cyclical cycle kick in on Monday.

The S & P 500 futures took out a key level at 4430 regions to show signs of turning the corner and NQ needs to take out 14330 on futures to do the same.

Silver issued a sell signal today by taking out 2545 and it is another case of the cartoon strip peanuts where Lucy promises that Charlie Brown will kick the football but then she lifts it at the last minute so he can fall flat on his back.

Natural gas issued a reversal signal this morning from our long-term target of 7.95 that we saw last fall.

What’s next?

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Time for Bitcoin again?

Last November we timed the top of Bitcoin within a week and we have been waiting for a new positive cycle to kick in late March and by mid-April. We are at that point.

We are at a cyclical point where we have to start accumulating longs. Computer models give a 64% chance for 37764 and that would be ideal and we need to break above 45000 to negate that pattern and confirm buying strength. We do not have the technical signal but the cycles have now shifted positively and we have not had this signal for a shift since we saw the Nov. high and it was time to take profits. We can wait for 38000 but we are at a key time window.

Our next major cycle high is into the middle of May and we still feel like the market is in transition. .

To deal with the volatility, you can consider GBTC as an ETF. Still, GBTC would have a better entry and patterns there suggest we should be patient for better levels to buy.

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Post-Easter Stock market rally? Can the market turn the corner?

Cycles turn more positive for the stock market April 18-25th and the market is often up after the Easter holiday. The larger question is will the rally be significant enough to end the grinding bear and the worries of higher rates? For now we expect S & P futures 4350 to hold and we could get up to at least 4560 on S & P futures by late April but will the market move beyond that? Tech stocks have continued in a funk and they do not like higher interest rates.

Stay in touch with our larger forecast and overview for the year with Fortucast products. Lots of money to make this year with soaring inflation and there are sectors that are doing well.

Looking into 2024

Because of some larger 80 year and 248-year cycles going back to the Revolutionary War, something bigger could happen into 2023-2024. US cycles all suggest a huge major event in April 2024 and we do not know if this event will coincide with a low in stocks or to the acceleration of it. It is a change of empire cycle so we doubt the US will stay on top of the world in the same way that Britain lost that status after World War 2. China is waiting in the wings.

If you have not figured it out yet, the government likes to be totally in control and force us to be dependent on them. The state of the world lockdowns and plans for the Great Reset to combat climate change and trillions of dollars in world debt is a warped way of looking at the world, but it is happening. You can see the plans with Biden signing a bill for the creation of electronic money and when the system fails, you had better be a good boy or girl if you want your allowance on your electronic card.

We sense that the government tyranny cycles will not be over until April 2024 based on our cycle work and similar cycles to World War 2 which lasted about 5 years and there is plenty of time for governments to do their controlling mischief.

The world mess with trillions of dollars of debt and Covid the bills due will not go away. We keep inflating world debt into the trillions and there is not going to be a soft landing there. We continue to work on the timing for such an event. You will need to work on strategies to keep your assets and your money safe and owning unmortgaged property is one idea.

The nature of the 248-year cycle which peaks into the spring of 2024 and 2025 is such that the US will be very different from its current status in the world and clearly, China has larger plans than we would like to believe and anyone who thinks such thinking is racist should do their homework. Maybe it will take until 2030-32 before the center of the world shifts from Washington and New York to Beijing but you can see their aspirations and their long-term chess match at work.

Wheat

We would not be shocked to see May wheat still hit 1450 or 1518 later in the season if the war news goes its way and we have a bias for higher prices but trading this market requires huge pockets or buying well-priced call options or spreads on dips. Russia and Ukraine export 29% of the world’s wheat and that is a huge impact on the world.

Soybeans

LOOKING AHEAD: Wild weather patterns for the next 7 years will create prices that we have never seen before. Growing seasons will be shorter with colder and wetter spring and early frosts due to the Sunspot cycles. La Nina will come in the next few years and push prices sharply higher. This is only the beginning of a super bull and food shortages for years. Flood cycles are strong this year and will impact vulnerable growing areas.