LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

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Stocks have had a nice bounce but we doubt 4100 on cash will come out by Friday or Sunday night and cycles turn negative into the end of the month and actually into the end of the year and into early January.  Not sure the FOMC will cooperate with enough dovish language to make people happy.  The good news is that we do see a January/Feb. rally coming and we have worked on our 2023 forecast.  For now, if you need to take profits on stocks that you do not like, look at Friday/Monday.  We will wait to buy and invest until later.   Gold also gave a sell signal on Wednesday and crude oil does not look great next week.   Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers.  One month’s trial is 97.00.
-Barry

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Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

 

Crude oil took out the key 8040 regions today confirming a move to 71.00 and possibly 65.00.   Cycle lows are due at the earliest into the end of the month and we have to look at Dec. more closely to see if it can extend in time. Seasonals are often lower into mid-December depending on how Old Man Winter behaves and how early.  Oil stocks are very overbought and due for a correction with the stock market into December.   We still like this complex into next year and may finally get the break we have needed.

 

-Barry

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Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

The stock market recovered from the abyss on Friday and the S & P futures need to take out 3763 and then 3820 for it to be meaningful.  We do not like cycles next week and at best the market may hold up on Sunday.  There are too many x-factor out there with the Yen at 32 year lows, the chaos in British politics and their pension program in jeopardy.  Russia and Ukraine look particularly intense going into Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for the S & P to go to 3550 on cash quickly is much stronger than a breakout.  What do we see for the rest of the year?

WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for a potential step down to 50bps in December.

Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and the subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…

We got our fundamental hockey puck to save on Friday but can it last?

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-Barry

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Energy Prices Continue to Falter

Energy Prices Continue to Falter

Despite OPEC reductions and an energy crisis in Europe, natural gas and crude oil are starting to issue breakdown signals.

Crude oil would have to take out 9000 again to turn bullish and is projecting 75.85 short-term and lower to 72.00 and cycle lows are not due until mid-November.  Natural gas under 6.00 is projected at 5.19-5.22 and do we dare think 4.25?  Cycles for natural gas are lower until at least Oct 25th.

Eventually, the reality of the energy crisis, cold winters, demand for heating oil,  and many other factors will take these markets wildly high this winter but for now, they are in trouble and will pull UNG, the ETF for Natural Gas stocks, and XLE for oil stocks lower.

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-Barry

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What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

What to Make of Thursday’s Stock Market Reversal?

The stock market got to a key level at 3500 and reached an exhaustion point and the bad news from CPI was expected.  At some point, you get a vacuum pivot as everyone is too short and computer buying can suddenly create a huge move.  The S & P is closing up over 2.66 % which does not mean much in the context of the fall of 850 S & P points since the August high.    One day is not enough to right what is wrong in the world with bond markets ready to explode in Japan and the UK and Russia increasing its attack on Ukraine.    Still today’s rally was welcome and there should be a bit more early next week.The good news is that we should get another leg up 200 S & P points from a pullback early next week but we think that is all that we can count on.  Stay in touch with our twice-daily thoughts by subscribing to the Fortucast ETF timer or the Fortucast Financial Timer.

This bear is a long way from being over.

-Barry

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Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

Still Another Leg Up for This Week’s Star Performers.

The employment data today was a bit hawkish and the stock market is retracing the huge gains we saw early in the week.  The rule is that the market usually retraces in 3 waves so there should be another leg up next week in stocks.   We have been expecting 3660 on S & P futures to hold today and so far it is happening despite looking terrible this morning, we do see another push-up next week.
Gold and silver also retraced today as they do not like higher rates but they also need additional legs higher next week.   How far will these markets go higher next week?  What comes thereafter?

-Barry

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METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?

METALS AND ENERGY—NEW BULLS OR TRAPS?


Gold is getting interesting.  With one more day up, we could see 1747-1748.  The most bullish pattern would allow 1778 before a pullback.  Given the interest in metals—finally, you have to worry about the dark clouds in the financials system which almost crashed in Europe and Japan with their bond problems the US could be next, and investors are waking up to that.  With gold up into as late as Oct. 19th, the most bullish pattern would allow 2150.  We will not bring it back until 1900 comes out.

Gold could finish to the upside to 1820 or 1880 into mid-October.  Above 1900 we would bring back the bullish pattern to 2150.  Our cycle work still supports a Dec. cycle low. Hence we are not ready to discount  1500 into late Dec. when cycle lows are due on the yearly chart.
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Silver is on the verge of extending to 2150 or 2198 if it takes out 2115. That would allow only a pullback to 2025 into Friday.   Given that there is more time, it has a higher possibility of happening.   Pullbacks into Friday would go to 2025 or max. 2005 depending on where the market stops on Wednesday.  The overall next target is 2285-2305  and those are targets into the Oct. 9-19th positive window.  The most bullish pattern projects this month before we get a pullback.  Silver has continued to find ways to disappoint so let’s be cautious.

CRUDE OIL UPDATE:

Last weekend’s post was off as we did not see the impact of OPEC last Friday.  Crude should reach up to 88.40 minimum or max. 91.50. Need to take out 92.00 to negate the bearish pattern to 72.00 into next week which is there in the cycles.

Our cycles suggest selling the fact coming on Wednesday so the bear should resume.

-Barry

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Crude oil in Trouble

Crude oil in Trouble

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Crude failed to issue a breakout signal above 83.70 on Nov crude futures with the hurricane and patterns and cycles suggest a fall next to 7220 and cycles look lower for a few weeks.  The X-Factor is an Oct 5th meeting by OPEC.  Reuters notes that It is “likely” that the group will agree on a cut, a source at OPEC told Reuters.  At the previous meeting, OPEC+ reversed the 100,000-barrels-per-day increase for September and returned the October quota to the levels from August.

Oil stocks have been in trouble with the XLE and the XOP and we worry about a Nov. cycle low for them also.  At best the XLE might recover to 75.72 if it goes up with a rebound in the stock market due the first few weeks of October.  We worry about seeing 60.92 next. How low will crude fall into the late fall?

-Barry

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Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd

Complex Market Completions by Sept 30/Oct 2nd

 

The dollar has been soaring and has a cycle high into Friday and the thought is that the World Central Banks will intervene to halt the dollar and prevent the British Pound from taking out 1.00.  We have eventual projections to 9100 on the Pound so intervention may only have a temporary impact.  The S & P probably needs two more lows to complete and today one is close and probably would go to the max. 3595 with a recovery to 3725.   A new low under 3595 should happen by Friday or Sunday, creating a temporary bottom for stocks. What kind of recovery can we expect in this crazy world?

T-notes are also close to 109.10-109.18 which should hold and gold looks like it would go to 1590.  Both of those are not done but will pause.    Meanwhile, crude oil under 8200 is headed for 7220 and is far from done, and does not seem to care about Hurricane Ian.

-Barry

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