Category: Financial Timer

CHINA AND JAPAN’S IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.

A few key fundamental factors overhanging the markets. China is going into its Lunar New Year this weekend and the idea is that they will be more active during this holiday, and after, and they will need more energy support crude. . It will also be tough to handle inflationary pressures once their economy opens back up. This may be a reason for the influx of investor money in commodities this week.

Japan’s failure to control the 10-year price of their 10-year bond, despite 78 billion in QE, is giving signs that their Central Bank could break. We also have the looming US debt ceiling crisis hanging over the market. This has hammered the dollar with key support at 100.54 if 101.20 comes out. All of these factors support being in Bitcoin and metals and we had noted Bitcoin cycles are due to peek into next week and gold may just not pull back enough to let us in at decent levels. We are also at a point where a 2nd wave correction is due on stocks into the FOMC meeting. When will it start and where can we buy stocks for a Feb. rally?

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Major Turns for Financials About to Happen

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) T-notes could get up to 115.28 and the
dollar got to 101.72 and 101.40-50 should hold.

2) Gold is close to the 1920 target and silver still cannot get to ideal pattern completion at 2450.

3) Crude oil cycles are an exception as we see cycle highs into Wednesday and the market is almost at 7960 and could go higher.

4) Some Bitcoin cycles suggest holding up into the 23^rd but that would not go with our NQ cycles that are suggesting topping.

We should expect 3 wave corrections in the stock market into the end of the month and also bonds should retrace and a recovery in the dollar to 105.50 will happen and a larger retracement in gold with silver needing to go to 2270 or 2224.

So the next few sessions are transition periods so act accordingly to bank profits and by early next week there will be some shorts to do for a few weeks.
Today is profit-taking before a 3-day weekend so it’s unclear if the upper numbers on stocks and bonds will hit on Sunday/Monday/Monday night or at all depending on weekend news. Stay on top of these markets with a 1 month trial of the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer for 97.00.

Exciting Week in Financials Ahead.

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) Stocks could hold up as long as Wednesday and the upper target on the S & P futures is 3984. There do appear a few more places for entries either at the end of this week or into late January and Feb. is a better month for the market to take off and accelerate.

2) Watch breakout above 11450 for acceleration in NQ 100.

In both of these cases, if this happens, we may not get the big pullback until the end of the week.

3) Watch the dollar index at 102.07 for a minimum pullback and temporary low

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Is the Stock Market Ready to Roll?

Friday’s strong showing at our earliest time window for a bottom was a first positive sign. Cash S & P has early resistance at 3920-25 and 3940-5 and then could have a deep pullback to cash 3840 later in the week. Many ETFs we follow would look better if they have more significant secondary lows like XLE for energy stocks down to at least 8100 and XLU for utilities down to 66-67 and XLV for Health Care down to 127.50. We may not get it. Gold is also about to bump against major resistance and is rather overbought now even if larger cycle highs are not due until the first week of March. These markets continue to be quite volatile so stay in touch with our major daily research by subscribing to the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer. One month trial for 97.00. Click here.

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-Barry

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Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

The stock market has confirmed a temporary high and is starting a correction at least into Dec. 16th. When is the next entry for shorts? How it reacts off of the Dec. 16th low will be important to see if it will continue lower into early January. Silver has confirmed a high and also gold and they should break the whole month. Crude oil confirmed a breakdown to much lower numbers now. Stay on top of our projections and ways to trade these exciting markets with the Fortucast Timers.

-Barry

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When Does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

When does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

A close look at the Powell press conference does not reveal that it is that dovish and it was widely felt that the Dec. rate hike would only be 50 bps. already so why the extreme reaction? Most of the Fed governors are still hawkish and the market was just trigger-happy to buy going into the first of the month. We have a cluster of turning points for stocks and metals into Dec. 5-6th and usually, the market is lower a week before the FOMC announcement on Dec. 14th.

Gold projects 1848 for pattern completion and the dollar is close to key support at 104.05 and 103.72. The S & P probably will not get through 4154 on futures. The bigger question, is how much does the market go down in December, when does it stop and what does next year look like?

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-Barry

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LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

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Stocks have had a nice bounce but we doubt 4100 on cash will come out by Friday or Sunday night and cycles turn negative into the end of the month and actually into the end of the year and into early January. Not sure the FOMC will cooperate with enough dovish language to make people happy. The good news is that we do see a January/Feb. rally coming and we have worked on our 2023 forecast. For now, if you need to take profits on stocks that you do not like, look at Friday/Monday. We will wait to buy and invest until later. Gold also gave a sell signal on Wednesday and crude oil does not look great next week. Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers. One month’s trial is 97.00.
-Barry

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Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Crude oil took out the key 8040 regions today confirming a move to 71.00 and possibly 65.00. Cycle lows are due at the earliest into the end of the month and we have to look at Dec. more closely to see if it can extend in time. Seasonals are often lower into mid-December depending on how Old Man Winter behaves and how early. Oil stocks are very overbought and due for a correction with the stock market into December. We still like this complex into next year and may finally get the break we have needed.

-Barry

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Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

We have had so many false signals on metals that we want to ignore the recent spurt this week which is mainly because China is selling dollars to prop up the Yuan and that could take the dollar index to 107.40 over the next few days. Gold futures need to take out 1715 to issue a buy signal but they could hit 1720-30 and then turn down still as we do have the market lower next week. Silver at best might get to 2056 and still turn down.

We are in an x-factor world now with currencies becoming rather volatile and on edge with interest rates and metals are finally getting noticed. After so many false signals we are waiting for gold to close above 1730 and then buy a pullback into early December.

Our long-term work still points to 1600 or 1500 into early December. We do see metals coming to life during the 1st quarter of 2023.

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-Barry

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Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

The stock market recovered from the abyss on Friday and the S & P futures need to take out 3763 and then 3820 for it to be meaningful. We do not like cycles next week and at best the market may hold up on Sunday. There are too many x-factor out there with the Yen at 32 year lows, the chaos in British politics and their pension program in jeopardy. Russia and Ukraine look particularly intense going into Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for the S & P to go to 3550 on cash quickly is much stronger than a breakout. What do we see for the rest of the year?

WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for a potential step down to 50bps in December.

Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and the subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…

We got our fundamental hockey puck to save on Friday but can it last?

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-Barry

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Financial Market Timer

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